MD of driving skills company, driving.co.za, Rob Handfield – Jones, has said that the Road Traffic Management Corporation has again made invalid road safety comparisons. He said the latest inconsistency refers to the period 1 December 2010 to 21 December 2010.
“The RTMC’s Ashref Ismail is quoted as saying that 860 people died during this period as compared to 984 during the same period in 2009,” said Handfield – Jones. “However, a Department of Transport press statement from last year notes that, in fact, only 619 deaths had occurred between 1 and 20 December 2009, a period just one day shorter than the 21-day period alluded to by Ismail in 2010,” he added.
“Based on the average daily fatality rate, I readily concede that the figure of 619 could have grown to around 655 deaths by 21 December 2009. However, this is still 329 deaths fewer than Ismail’s claimed figure of 984 for that period in 2009,” said Handfield – Jones. “I call on him to explain the origin of that number, and why it contradicts the Department of Transport’s own press release from last year.”
Handfield-Jones said that Ismail’s statements mark the fourth time in the past 11 months that the RTMC has either issued invalid comparisons, or avoided mentioning that the scope for comparison may be limited. He added that on each occasion, the errors had made the road safety situation look better than it actually was. “Four inconsistencies in less than a year is remarkable,” said Handfield – Jones, “especially when it took me less than a minute on the Department of Transport’s website to locate the press release containing 2009’s December 20th death toll,” he added. “If someone from the RTMC had thought to do likewise, all would have been well.”
Handfield – Jones said the effect of the current mis-statement was gravely serious and made it appear that, so far, 2010 Christmas holiday road deaths were down by about 13% over 2009. However, using the figure of 655 for 2009, rather than Ismail’s 984, the death toll was actually currently up by 31%.
“We will have to await the finalised statistics in January to see whether there is any substance to this trend,” said Handfield – Jones, “but if the RTMC is going to continue making invalid comparisons, it might be better if they didn’t issue any figures at all until then,” he concluded.